Non-Permanent Residents Lead Canada’s 2025 Population Decline

Canada’s population growth has slowed dramatically in early 2025, reaching its weakest pace since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the latest data, this slowdown is driven primarily by a sharp drop in the number of non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers. The federal government’s recent policy changes—aimed at capping temporary immigration and easing housing and labor pressures—are now reshaping the country’s immigration landscape. This article explains what’s behind this shift, how it affects provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, and what it means for current and future immigrants. Whether you’re planning to study, work, or settle in Canada, understanding these changes is crucial for making informed decisions in 2025 and beyond.

Table of Contents

1. Overview of Canada’s Population Slowdown

2. Non-Permanent Residents See Sharpest Decline in Decades

3. Policy Changes Behind the Drop in Non-Permanent Residents

4. Permanent Immigration Holds Steady

5. Provinces Facing Population Losses

6. Alberta’s Growth Driven by Domestic Migration

7. What This Means for Non-Permanent Residents and Newcomers

8. Future Outlook: Immigration and Population Trends

9. Expert Advice for Immigrants

10. Official Resources and References

Overview of Canada’s Population Slowdown

In the first quarter of 2025, Canada experienced a dramatic drop in its population growth rate—the slowest since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the second-lowest rate since modern record-keeping began in 1947, according to Statistics Canada (source). This slowdown signals a major demographic shift that reflects recent changes in the country’s immigration policies.

The federal government has implemented a series of measures aimed at curbing immigration temporarily. These include reduced intake of international students, stricter conditions for temporary foreign workers, and slower processing of certain permanent resident applications. As a result, population growth—heavily dependent on immigration—has begun to cool across most provinces.

The main driver behind the slowdown is the sharp decline in non-permanent residents (NPRs). These include:

• International students studying at Canadian colleges and universities

• Temporary foreign workers brought in through programs like the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and International Mobility Program (IMP)

• Refugee claimants and other humanitarian cases awaiting status decisions

Canada typically relies on this group to support labor markets, fill student enrollments, and boost regional development. However, in Q1 2025, the number of non-permanent residents fell by more than 61,000 people, signaling a reversal of the usual growth pattern seen in the first quarter of each year.

This trend not only reflects intentional federal policy but also signals potential challenges ahead for economic sectors that depend on temporary labor and international education.

Non-Permanent Residents See Sharpest Decline in Decades

In Q1 2025, the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada dropped by over 61,000, marking a historic reversal in seasonal migration patterns. Traditionally, the first quarter sees a rise in NPRs due to academic and work program intakes. This time, it was the opposite.

Groups Most Affected:

• International Students

  • Especially in Ontario and British Columbia

• Temporary Foreign Workers

  • Impacted by stricter employer compliance requirements

“This reduction is counter to the typical seasonal pattern of an increase in the first quarter.” — Statistics Canada

Policy Changes Behind the Drop in Non-Permanent Residents

The decline in non-permanent residents is a direct result of federal immigration policy changes introduced in 2024 and early 2025. These measures aim to control population growth and ease pressure on housing and social services.

Key Policy Actions:

1. Cap on new international student permits

   • Targeted at reducing NPRs from 7% to 5% of the total population

   • Read more: IRCC Announcement on Study Permit Caps

2. Tighter controls on Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)

   • Employers must meet stricter labor market impact assessment (LMIA) conditions

   • Read more: TFWP Program Details – Canada.ca

3. Enhanced scrutiny on asylum claims and visitor overstays

According to economist Robert Kavcic from BMO, “The process of normalizing this segment of the population is now well underway. Ottawa is targeting a 5% NPR share from a peak above 7%. Further outflows are expected through 2026.”

Permanent Immigration Holds Steady

While the non-permanent resident population fell, permanent immigration remained relatively stable, with 104,256 new permanent residents admitted in Q1 2025. This figure is historically strong, although slightly lower than recent highs due to reduced federal immigration targets.

Provinces Facing Population Losses

Five provinces recorded population declines in Q1, led by Ontario and British Columbia. These losses are linked directly to the outflow of non-permanent residents.

This is the largest quarterly loss for Ontario and B.C. since national data tracking began in 1951.

Alberta’s Growth Driven by Domestic Migration

While most Canadian provinces reported population losses or stagnation in the first quarter of 2025, Alberta emerged as a clear exception. The province gained a net 7,176 residents through interprovincial migration, marking its 11th consecutive quarter of population growth driven by Canadians relocating from other parts of the country. This consistent growth trend highlights Alberta’s unique position in the current demographic landscape.

Why More Canadians Are Moving to Alberta

Several key factors are driving people—especially young professionals and families—to leave higher-cost provinces like Ontario and British Columbia for Alberta:

1. Lower Housing and Rental Prices

Alberta continues to offer significantly more affordable real estate. In cities like Calgary and Edmonton, average home prices remain well below those in Toronto or Vancouver. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), as of Q1 2025:

• Average home price in Calgary: CAD 540,000

• Average home price in Toronto: Over CAD 1.1 million

• Average monthly rent in Edmonton: Around CAD 1,400

• Average monthly rent in Vancouver: Over CAD 2,600

These price differences have made Alberta an attractive option for people seeking stability and homeownership opportunities.

2. Strong Job Market in Key Sectors

Alberta’s economy, which historically depends on oil and gas, is currently benefitting from increased investment in both traditional energy and emerging industries like clean technology, agriculture, and construction. The province’s labor market is absorbing workers across various skill levels, including trades, engineering, healthcare, and logistics.

Employers in Alberta are actively recruiting skilled labor, and job seekers from provinces with higher unemployment or slower job creation are responding. The Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP) also offers pathways for skilled immigrants already in Canada to settle permanently in the province.

3. Lower Cost of Living

Beyond housing, Alberta residents enjoy lower provincial taxes—including no provincial sales tax (PST)—which improves purchasing power for families and individuals. Utility costs, transportation, and groceries also tend to be more affordable than in other major Canadian cities.

4. Family-Friendly Lifestyle

Alberta offers access to quality healthcare, strong public schools, and a high standard of living. Its proximity to outdoor recreational areas like Banff National Park, Lake Louise, and the Rocky Mountains adds appeal for families looking to raise children in a stable and active environment.

What This Means for Non-Permanent Residents and Newcomers

For non-permanent residents, this shift represents a critical moment. Canada is tightening entry pathways while favoring applicants with strong qualifications for permanent residency.

Key Takeaways for Non-Permanent Residents:

• International students must now show stronger financial and academic backgrounds.

• Temporary workers need employers with full regulatory compliance.

• Asylum seekers face increased scrutiny and limited housing options.

Those planning to enter Canada on temporary grounds should consider long-term pathways to permanent residency early.

Future Outlook: Immigration and Population Trends

Canada’s population growth will likely stay low through 2026, according to projections. The government expects population increases to stabilize around 1% annually, resembling pre-pandemic levels.

Forecast:

• NPR share will continue to decline

• Permanent immigration will remain steady

• Natural population growth (births minus deaths) remains negative

Expert Advice for Immigrants

Here are the most important recommendations if you’re affected by these changes:

International Students:

• Apply only to Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs)

• Ensure you have strong financial support

• Explore Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) options early

Temporary Workers:

• Make sure your job offer has a valid LMIA

• Track your visa expiry and maintain legal status

• Consider applying for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) or Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs)

Permanent Residency Seekers:

• Keep documentation updated and complete

• Check eligibility through the Come to Canada Tool

• Consult a licensed immigration consultant or attorney for help

Official Resources and References

• IRCC – Immigration and Citizenship Canada

• StatCan – Demographic Statistics

• TFWP – Employment and Social Development Canada

• Canada’s Study Permit Information

Need Help Navigating These Immigration Changes?

Maple Crest Immigration Law Firm specializes in guiding international students, skilled workers, and families through Canada’s complex immigration system. If you’re a non-permanent resident affected by recent policy shifts or planning to relocate, we can help you create a practical, long-term immigration plan. Schedule Consultation today, visit: maplecrestlaw.com