The White House has officially approved a sweeping and far-reaching immigration reform plan that could permanently end the long-standing and traditional H-1B lottery system used for visa selection.
Under this new framework, the current process of random selection would be replaced with a more structured, skills-based, salary-focused, and experience-driven ranking system.
The change aims to transform how foreign workers compete for and secure highly sought-after U.S. employment visas, prioritizing applicants with stronger qualifications, higher wage offers, and proven professional expertise, while aligning visa distribution more closely with the country’s labor market needs and economic priorities.
A Shift Away from the Random H-1B Lottery
For decades, the H-1B visa program has relied on a lottery to allocate limited slots to skilled foreign workers.
Currently, the cap allows 65,000 new applications annually, plus 20,000 for advanced U.S. degree holders.
This process, while straightforward, often left highly qualified candidates without visas due to chance alone.
The new plan seeks to remove that randomness.
Instead, candidates would be ranked and selected according to:
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Professional skills and qualifications.
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Relevant work experience in the occupation.
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Proposed salary levels compared to U.S. labor standards.
By prioritizing merit, U.S. agencies aim to channel H-1B visas toward the most in-demand and highest-skilled talent.
DHS and USCIS Push for a New Selection Model
The proposal comes from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).
It has been formally sent to the White House and approved for release after review.
The draft rule, called Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking to File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions, was submitted to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) for statutory review.
Once published, it will undergo a public comment period before final adoption.
Internal sources suggest the proposed system would revive elements from the Trump administration’s 2021 wage-based selection attempt.
That earlier plan was withdrawn by the Biden administration before it took effect.
Why the Current H-1B Lottery May Be Phased Out
The current H-1B lottery selection is beneficiary-centric.
USCIS first runs the lottery to pick unique applicants, then allows employers to file petitions for those chosen.
While this system reduces duplicate filings, it does not differentiate between high- and low-skilled candidates beyond meeting minimum requirements.
U.S. immigration authorities believe the proposed wage- and skill-based system would better align visa allocation with economic needs.
By awarding visas from the highest to lowest wage offers, the U.S. could prioritize roles critical to competitiveness and innovation.
Possible Timeline for Implementation
If finalized without legal challenges, the new system could take effect by March 2026.
That would place the first skills-based selection ahead of the FY 2027 H-1B cap season.
However, immigration attorneys expect lawsuits from stakeholders who argue the change unfairly disadvantages lower-wage but still essential professions.
Employers and candidates must therefore prepare for a potentially tighter competition environment, where salary benchmarks play a central role in selection.
Lessons from the 2021 Wage-Based Proposal
In 2021, the Trump administration proposed ranking H-1B petitions by Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) wage levels:
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Level IV (highest wage tier)
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Level III
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Level II
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Level I (entry-level)
Under that model, USCIS would have filled the cap starting with Level IV and moving downward.
Critics argued it favored tech giants and well-funded employers while excluding startups, research institutions, and small businesses.
Biden’s administration paused and then withdrew that rule, citing concerns over access and diversity in the labor market.
The new proposal may seek to balance wage considerations with broader skill evaluation, but exact scoring details remain under wraps.
Impact on Foreign Workers and Employers
If the H-1B lottery ends, the path for many skilled workers will change.
Key impacts include:
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Higher salaries may become essential for selection.
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Specialized skills in shortage occupations could weigh heavily in rankings.
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Entry-level positions may struggle to secure visas unless salaries meet higher thresholds.
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Employers in education and research may face challenges if wage caps dominate the process.
For employers, workforce planning will require earlier budgeting and competitive wage offers.
For applicants, career planning should focus on upskilling and targeting higher-value job roles.
The H-1B Visa Cap and Demand
| Fiscal Year | Regular Cap | Advanced Degree Exemption | Total Annual Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 65,000 | 20,000 | 85,000 |
In recent years, demand has far exceeded the annual cap.
For FY 2024, USCIS received over 750,000 registrations, meaning less than 12% of applicants secured a spot through the lottery.
A merit-based selection could drastically change these odds, favoring a smaller but more competitive pool.
Preparing for the New H-1B Selection Rules
Both employers and foreign professionals should take proactive steps now:
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Monitor regulatory updates from USCIS and DHS.
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Benchmark salaries against prevailing wage data for your occupation and location.
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Enhance skill portfolios with certifications and specialized experience.
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Plan job offers earlier to meet filing timelines once the rule takes effect.
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Work with qualified immigration consultants to navigate changes effectively.
Possible Legal and Policy Challenges
The proposed rule is likely to face legal tests from immigration advocacy groups.
Critics may argue it limits opportunities for highly skilled professionals working in lower-paid but essential fields such as education, research, and healthcare.
Small businesses and nonprofit organizations could also claim the change puts them at a disadvantage when competing against large corporations able to offer higher salaries.
In the past, similar lawsuits have slowed or even stopped major immigration policy shifts.
This time, the administration may design the rule to survive such challenges by balancing wage levels with broader criteria, such as overall economic benefit and specialized skills.
That approach could make the rule more defensible in court while still focusing on merit-based selection.
Broader Context in U.S. Immigration Policy
Replacing the H-1B lottery fits into a wider push to modernize U.S. immigration.
The goal is to ensure employment-based visas directly meet long-term labor demands rather than leaving selection to chance.
Several countries, including Canada and Australia, already use points-based systems that weigh skills, experience, and language ability when granting work visas.
By adopting a similar approach, the U.S. aims to create a more transparent and targeted process.
This would help reduce misuse of the program, prevent fraud, and ensure that visas go to workers filling genuine skill shortages in the economy.
What This Means for Current H-1B Holders
Those already on an H-1B visa will keep their current status and can continue working under existing terms.
However, future extensions, employer changes, or transfers could be affected if they involve new petitions subject to the cap, especially when wage rankings come into play.
Foreign graduates on OPT or STEM OPT should begin positioning themselves for higher-paying, specialized roles now to improve their chances if they apply under the new rules.
Conclusion
The end of the H-1B lottery would mark the most significant shift in employment-based immigration in decades.
If you are an employer or foreign professional aiming for U.S. opportunities, you must act early.
Map out your strategy, strengthen your qualifications, and prepare competitive offers.
Maple Crest Immigration can guide you through these changes, ensuring your application is positioned for success under the new rules.
From wage analysis to petition preparation, our team brings years of experience in navigating complex U.S. immigration policies.
Contact us today to secure your place in the future H-1B selection system before the rules change.
